It is earnings season for a bunch of the homebuilders. Often there is a lot of fluff in the earnings calls but we still like to read the transcripts since there are some occasional interesting points not covered in the 10-Q. Sometimes they talk about local market factors. Obviously California is in there but what happens there can also influence perceptions of Las Vegas. If you are also interested, you can find Lennar's transcript here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1905761-lennar-management-discusses-q4-20... read more

David Leonhardt had an interesting post in the New York Times business section today. He provides an exibit of home prices against mortgage rates. As you can see from his chart, the relationship is not very close, that is they are not cointegrated. The relationship betweent the two series is not direct, presumably because the borrowing rate is not the only variable people need to think about prior to their home purchase. Job growth, family size, comparable rents and other factors are mixed in there too. Nevertheles... read more

Currently, there is some debate as to the sustainability of home prices in Las Vegas and other areas. Strong price increases alone do not indicate overpricing. Instead, we have to look at the market as a composite of events, including rents, potential drivers of employment and importantly, supply. We took a look at some fundamental measures of values, prices relative to rents and prices relative to incomes. Prices and rents have been rising meaningfully in the last couple of years, however, prices have been outrunn... read more

The Case-Shiller home price index continues to post declines, yet many of these observations are lagged. The current index release is for March with the April release scheduled for Monday. The March figure was off 1.1% from February, whcih is a sizeable slide. However, the late spring and early summer months are generally hotter selling seasons and this has yet to be reflected in the Case-Shiller numbers. FNC, Inc has an alternative index based on a hedonic methodology that I really like. The formation of prices... read more

Predictions for residential real estate are challenged by the increasing opacity brought on by mortgage rate increases, a stronger dollar, a new presidential administration and demographic trends that are not well understood, such as the demand for housing by millennials.  In some minds, if increasing interest rates are a response to an improving economy, either through Federal Reserve increases or market responses, on the net, housing demand may remain robust. In other views, homebuyers may have be... read more